10 novembro 2007

Nothing like plotting the data to see the trends

(thanks FlorGrela for the suggestion).

If we analyze the data between 2005 and 2007, there is no correlation between crude oil price in USD and the USD / EUR ratio. The correlation coefficient is -0.469, so basically no relation. Independent, as I would expect.

But … if we look more closely to the data concerning 2007, when … surprise!!!! Can you see the trend???? The correlation coefficient of -0.947 shows a pretty good correlation!!

During 2007:
- the crude oil price has increased by 100%,
- the pump station gas prices in the US have increased by 50% ($2.00 in Jan to $3.00 in Nov)
- the dollar has depreciated by 10 %

The dollar plunges as the oil price sky-rockets!!! Is there a relation and what is it? What does this mean? Are both the dollar and the price of oil on the move??? The previous graph seems to suggest is that the loss of value of the US $ is also contibuting for the rise in the crude oil price: with a cheaper dollar, one needs more dollars to buy the same amount of oil. The sky-rocketing price of crude oil is being fueled (in part) by the plunging dollar!

Extrapolating ... if $1 drops down to 0.61 Euro then the crude oil price will reach $125 ... if $1 climbs back to 0.83 Euro then the crude oil price will drop back to $25.